One of my favorite resources for economic monitoring is the CME FedWatch Tool. It translates trading activity into probabilities for Fed interest rate decisions at upcoming meetings, giving you the market's collective forecast in real-time.
How to read it The tool displays a grid showing the probability of different rate targets at each meeting date. For example, you might see an 85% probability of rates staying at current levels and a 15% probability of a 25 basis point cut. The percentages across all possible outcomes for a given meeting always add up to 100%.
What to keep in mind
🔹 These are market expectations, not guarantees. The Fed can and does surprise markets.
🔹 Probabilities shift dramatically around economic data releases, Fed speeches, and geopolitical events.
🔹 The tool is more reliable for near-term meetings. Forecasts several meetings out become increasingly uncertain.
How to access it You can find it on the CME Group website by searching "CME FedWatch Tool." It's free and doesn't require a login.
For educational purposes only. Not tax, legal, or investment advice.