Markets move for many reasons, but a few things drove notable action (both up and down) recently. Here's what we're looking at and how they may play into investor portfolios:
Inflation data
The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years. That number moves markets because it shapes expectations about what the Fed will do with interest rates. Higher inflation means rates stay elevated longer; higher rates reduce what investors are willing to pay for future growth, which is why markets pulled back (down) when this data hit.
Employment data
The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well above expectations. This comes from the Non-Farm Payrolls report, named because it excludes farm workers, whose employment swings seasonally and would distort the broader picture. It tracks jobs added or lost across the economy and drops the first Friday of every month. A strong labor market keeps the Fed from cutting interest rates because it signals the economy doesn't need the help, keeping rates higher.
Big liquidity events
The SpaceX IPO confirmed positive investor appetite and set the stage for what comes next. OpenAI and Anthropic are now watching a market that just absorbed the largest public offerings in history. Late-stage startups also now have a credible data point to anchor valuations and approach their next raise with confidence. That said, the market can only absorb so much: too many big offerings in a short window can exhaust demand, which means not everyone in line gets the SpaceX treatment.
Geopolitical resolution
The Iran ceasefire pulled energy prices lower. Oil markets had been pricing in a risk premium as long as conflict threatened supply out of the region. When that risk receded, oil came down with it. The bigger impact on equities, though, was the reduced probability of escalation: an expanding conflict in a major oil-producing region threatens shipping lanes, supply chains, and global growth in ways that are difficult to price and harder to hedge. Markets rallied on the relief that the conflict is coming under control.
For educational purposes only. Not tax, legal, or investment advice.